USD

Yesterday's trading became an excellent indicator of sentiment in the markets. Based on the fact that we saw the strengthening of the dollar against all major rivals except the euro and the franc, we can make several conclusions. First, traders do not rush to completely get rid of the dollar, not having hands enough convincing arguments that caused the rollback in the majority of couples. Secondly, according to the markets, the euro, a more stable position at the moment, which allowed the currency to strengthen further. Perhaps there is still a role played by the sudden exit of a technical recession of two large economies in the 2 nd quarter. Thirdly, we have conceived a vague suspicion that the market will again focus their trading on the chances of a quick transition to tighten monetary policy. And if so, yesterday's traffic more than is logical: the best chances at the ECB, followed by the Fed and only for them, the Bank of England and others of that ilk. Thus, we suggest that all the attention switched to the published in the near future economic reports.

Today promises to be quite interesting. In the menu, we report on the volume of retail sales. Recall thatconsumer activity remains one of the fundamental factors in the development of the American economy, and given the fact that the current signs of recovery in the United States were observed only in connection with a corporate or government spending, our interest is to release only increased. Unfortunately, to date, good volume of sales can boast a network of shops of economy class. And the growth that we observed in two of the last five months, more was associated with rise in price of petrol and the results of programs such as Cash for crock. Most likely, these two factors play a role in increasing sales report for August. Thus, there should be more careful. The main index can jump really badly, that could cause another wave of demand for risky assets, but if the net indicator excluding cars and gasoline would reflect poor recovery (or even remain in negative territory), it can once again make the traders doubt the rapid recovery of the American economy. Despite the fact that the report on retail sales, no doubt, occupies a key position in today's calendar, you should not completely ignore releases PPI index and a study of business activity Empire State.

EUR

Euro continues to move forward, already breaking the mark of $ 1.4600. Here, apparently triggered a combination of two factors: more positive attitudes regarding the economic outlook, as well as break the upper limit of the summer range. Published reports yesterday also contribute to the support of the single currency. Yesterday the Bank of France announced that in August, real retail sales, taking into account seasonal variations rose by 0.2% m /m against -1.1% m /m in July, although the annual rate fell by 1.3%. Total sales were 3 quarter on 2,1% above the value of the previous period, indicating a more active support from the consumer. In addition, a separate report showed that in the second quarter, the employment rate fell slightly less than expected at 0,5%, and figures for the first and fourth quarters have been revised downward.

Today, our performance will attract the attention of the German Research ZEW, where here we expect a very decent growth, thanks again to the program incentive auto industry. Also note that the projections for the economic status of the ECB. Revision level upwards can only strengthen the strengthening euro.

GBP

But at the pound does not have the strength to continue the fight: as we expected, yesterday the currency against the dollar retreated against the lack of any reports and comments from the UK. Today, the lack of records will be compensated in full. Published data on the CPI and the index of retail prices will shed light on the state of inflation inside the country. As we remember, the Bank of England continues to fear that the British economy is far from stabilizing. In this regard, he is going to deviate from the monetary policy to mitigate. However, if the threat of inflation becomes more real, MPC will be forced to take strong measures. Thus, the increase in CPI could trigger a demand for a pound.

JPY

Jena had to surrender their positions in the pair with the USD, after being awarded with the widespread correction in the dollar pairs. This morning, the acting Minister of Finance of Japan and the most likely next candidate for the post made contradictory statements about the yen. I do not know what is the optimal rate of the yen - said Kaoru Yosano, Minister of Finance of Japan after the meeting of the Cabinet. - But I can say that the sharp fluctuations in exchange rates are undesirable. However, Hirohisa Fuji, Yosano likely successor in office, fundamentally opposed intervention in currency markets to weaken the yen and help exporters.

recall that Japan, as export-oriented economic system, greatly affected by the sharp strengthening of JPY. Earlier, the Bank of Japan has repeatedly resorted to measures such as verbal and actual intervention in the markets. Let's see what tactics of the new government.

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