USD

The main event yesterday was the steep sales and euro, respectively, almost everywhere the strengthening dollar. In the absence of any clear reasons for such dynamics, we believe that it is simply match the interests of different segments of traders. Some, as usual, trying to insure themselves against risk by the end of the month, in addition, getting rid of perekuplennoy pair euro /dollar (according to official reports, the number of long positions on EUR per week increased from 13 899 to 34 722). Others may react to the fundamental data from the United States, although the economic picture was rather optimistic than pessimistic in nature.

Fedrezerv United States reported that most of its 12 regional banks reported on the slowdown in the economic downturn in June and July. This report confirms the statements made by the head of the Fed. Last week, Ben Bernanke said that the downturn in the U.S. economy appears to have slowed considerably, while the demand and activity in the manufacturing sector showed early signs of stabilization. Other leaders of the Fed announced this week that they were awaiting the start of a gradual economic recovery in the second half. In addition, we learned that orders for durable goods in the United States excluding cars and aircraft in June showed an unexpected increase that could be an indication that in the second half of this year, activity in the manufacturing sector can grow. Statistics on orders for durable goods helped make the presentation on the investments planned by companies in the following months, and at the moment the overall picture suggests that the recession has gradually begun to weaken. That sounds all nice, but do not forget that while it is restoring to a terrible performance last year. However, if we take the broader picture, the indicators remain very weak, so it is possible that this is only a temporary correction, after which the country will cover the new wave of crisis.

Today we will see only a record number of hits on the American unemployed for benefits. If it grows again, it is surely only exacerbate the exodus from risky assets, thereby reinforcing the position of the dollar. Also, do not forget that in front remains a major event of the week - GDP Quarter 2. In the event of a major disappointment, the U.S. will get the new scores.

EUR

euro most affected during yesterday's auction, which is likely only to perepozitsionirovanii as a fundamental prerequisite for a clear plan we have not mentioned. Consumer prices in Germany, Europe's largest economy, the first time in more than 22 years have recorded declines in year on year, as the cost of energy and food products has decreased, but the recession has had a negative impact on costs.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) has reflected the decline by 0,6% y /y. CPI index also showed the decline to 0.6%, which was the first negative figure since March 1987 year. Thus, we see that deflation is still wade in the space of the euro, which means that the ECB may well be to continue lowering rates and policies quantitative mitigation that will automatically lead to a weakening of the single currency. However, whether this will be the Governing Council remains in question.

Today, our attention will be riveted to the data on German unemployment and confidence in the euro area (consumer, economic, industrial and services). However, despite the rather interesting statements, the dynamics of the euro is still likely to be determined by market sentiment with regard to risky assets.

GBP

Range British never managed to break through, despite a series of economic reports, as well as extensive sales euro, which could, by inertia, and impact on the British. And once the dynamics of the euro has not been able to affect the GBP, it means that the number of positions in the buying and selling it more or less balanced, so that it can move only a couple of major economic catalyst.

Economic data yesterday were mixed. The total volume of consumer credit grew in June, the lowest since 1993-th year, thus reaching a historical minimum. The volume of outstanding consumer credit in June grew by only 414 million pounds against a revised May figure of 485 million But the number of approved applications for mortgages proved as above the previous rate, and higher expectations (47 600 against the projection 47 of 000).

Today's economic calendar was empty, the UK, so the dynamics of the pound will be determined solely by movements in market sentiment. In our view, such incentives will not be enough to finally pull out of the British band. It remains to wait for surprises.

JPY

The dollar /yen again, trying to test the box Y95.00, but until a couple of not very well do it. Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance of Japan has revised its assessment on the improvement of economic situation in the country for the first time in more than five years, as reasons for calling the signs of stabilization in industrial production. This is the first assessment of the economic situation improving since April 2004. The report for the first quarter of this year, said that the fall of the economy is compounded by.

A record itself for industrial production, we received this morning. Japanese factories fourth consecutive month of increased production volumes, supporting the country's economic recovery from recession is the strongest since the Second World War. Volume promproizvodstva rose in June at 2.4% m /m against 5.7% in May. Thus, the prognosis is indeed confirmed by the Japanese authorities, and the economy is gradually beginning to apply the signals stabilize.

The government handed over gas distribution network of 42 gas company Naftogaz
The market played 1000 points on the MICEX index, worse than the market yet, Gazprom oil and RusGidro
Recommendations on the stock market: LUKOIL, MMC Norilsk Nickel, Rostelecom, Gazprom, Mosenergo, Surgutneftegaz, Sberbank
In the case of deterioration of the global market price of shares in the Savings Bank could once again test the level of support in the region of 35-34 rubles
Recommendations on shares of Gazprom, Lukoil, Rosneft, MMC Norilsk Nickel and Sberbank
NUTRITEK calculates in September 2009 to sign an agreement on debt restructuring of $ 1.2 billion rubles
Under the blow of paper may be today the banking sector and oil companies
U.S. dollar at the Asian auctions on Thursday declined to a basket of major world currencies
Participants in the market yesterday reacted with caution to the collapse of the Chinese stock market