USD

Here we got to the end of the working week and up to the saturation of the events of the day - rarely see the rate of the ECB meeting and U.S. employment rates of payroll in one day. So surprising that yesterday's movements in the currency market and did not lead to anything significant - who will risk perepozitsionirovaniya not to know the main dish?

So the main question remains what will be whether the recent sharp recovery of the indicators of employment (if I may say restoration - the numbers are still negative, but not as great as before) continued? In May we saw a figure of -345 thousand, as at June forecast is - 375 thousand If you focus on leading indicators of the labor market, received earlier in the week, then we can assume that the rate will remain in the forecast. The planned dismissal in June in the U.S. amounted to 74 393 to 111 182 in May, according to the recruiting company Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. The June value is minimal since March 2008, when the number of planned lay-offs amounted to 53 579. However, according to the ADP, the U.S. company declined in June, more jobs than analysts had expected. The index shows decline in employment in June to 473 thousand people that the worse prognosis (347 thousand), but the May figure was revised to positive (-485 to -532 thousand thousands). In addition, the employment component of ISM index in the manufacturing sector improved to 40.7 against 34.3 in May. Unfortunately, we have no data on the service sector, which has always been a wonderful base for projections.

Thus, to date, tongue slightly outweighed in the positive so that if the number of lost seats once again exceeded 500 thousand - expect large-scale flight from risk and return of the dollar. However, remember that the statistics show the last time: usually initially chosen direction of the dollar change in the light of revised data, as well as the draft risk assessment. Suppose, the rate is less than -500 thousand very positive for the U.S. economy, the first national currency may even grow, but after assessing the global economic outlook raises the demand for riskier assets, and the USD is losing its way.

EUR

euro has strengthened its position in anticipation of the next meeting of the ECB rate. Today, European and American fronts have the same meaning and force of the impact on the market. But still worth to remember that the Central Bank has used almost every possible tool to influence monetary policy, therefore, hardly now expect any radical changes or innovations (bid remain the same, however, as well as the size of purchase of assets). Nevertheless, there still remains, and Trichet's press conference. Here we can learn about a new economic outlook, as well as to receive comments on the first-ever 12-month refinancing operations, which joined a record in the financial system.

According to the latest data, Trichet will, than to boast about in terms of economic development. The volume of retail sales in Germany in May, said growth in the third row. Retail sales increased by 0.4% compared to April, exceeding the forecasts of economists who had expected a zero growth. Meanwhile, the fall of activity in the manufacturing sector in the euro zone slowed in June, the fourth month in succession. Improving the situation in France was offset by the worsening situation in Germany and Italy. Supply Managers Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector recovered in June to 9-month maximum of 42.6 PTS. against 40.7 PTS. in May, surpassing the prior value in June, 42.4 PTS. So an optimistic view on the future of Trichet's ability to support the euro, despite the emerging parallel data from the United States.

GBP

pound is still under the yoke of the recent reports of the record decline in GDP in quarter 1, and even published yesterday by positive economic data have not been able to regain his strength. Activities in the UK manufacturing sector rose sharply in June to the key 50 mark, reaching 13-month maximum. PMI index reached 47.0 in June from 45.4 in May. But he still was unable to repeat the fate of the target service for the last month, which has already switched to a zone of growth (above 50). Today, we received only PMI index for the construction sector, which is unlikely to cause any concern in the markets. But, given the richness of European and American calendars, so the pound would remain on the sidelines. It will have the opportunity to play in Friday, when the United States going to celebrate July 4, and the UK will publish the indicators in the service sector PMI for June.

JPY

In anticipation of the more important news of the day Yen consolidates small enhancement, obtained during the U.S. session. Inconsistent comments Chinese representatives were re-captured the attention of the market, but their effect was short-lived. During the U.S. session, there were rumors that China was allegedly offered a great desire to raise the issue at the G8 summit to be held next week in Italy. However, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of China said today that he hoped that the exchange rate of the dollar as world reserve currency will remain stable. In general, the uncertainty remains, but the problem with China's politicalsplit personality is not yet very concerned about the market.

Review of the FOREX market for 01.07.09
Yesterday, a pair of Euro /dollar rose in the U.S. session to 1.4199
European companies are increasingly using bonds as a funding source
Victor Lozinsky prepared surrender
The ECB will keep rates unchanged, will have to consider other measures
Will any other loan?
The continued drift of the oil and gas sector in the paper does not allow for successful restoration of Russian market
The potential for reducing the cost of the shares of Sberbank is about 6.7% to 36.8 rubles
The nearest support for futures on RTS index is currently situated in the vicinity of 93 500-94 000 points