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Euro has consolidated around 1.48 mark

Sep 23rd, 2009 | By admin | Category: News International Markets

Thus, the general optimism in the markets still thrive. Yesterday, the Dow Jones closed by growth at 0.52%, at around 9829, remains at a maximum year. Gold prices are at about 1,014 dollars per ounce. The euro also is high, the night has been updated, the maximum at around 1.4841. Only the Shanghai index yesterday closed next fall, fell to 1.89% to 2842. And oil prices have shown uncertain dynamics, the current value of 71.14 dollars per barrel mark WTI. Restoring the world economy seems to be going its own way, today the first evaluation index of purchasing managers showed growth in the euro area, and data on new Eurozone industrial orders in July rose 2.6% m /m, from -25.1% y /y to -24.3% y /g (a minimum figure is in April, -35.1% y /y). Recall that in the July data, U.S. factory orders in July are at the level of -23.2% y /y, while the minimum was shown merely in July, at the level of -23.6% y /y. That is, the situation here is similar to what we saw when comparing the dynamics of industrial production the U.S. and the Eurozone. The decline in the euro area was noticeably stronger because of the shock of demand reduction (largely because of the reduction of consumption in the U.S.), but to the present moment the situation in the euro zone industry has improved significantly and continues to improve, the size of the decline is almost equal to that currently in USA. While in the U.S. factory orders fell and just stagnate. That is why the U.S. needs a cheaper dollar to support its industry, otherwise the fruits of the restoration of America will not get.

At the same time other parameters the situation in the euro area has been and remains much better than in the United States. Retail sales in the U.S. dimension g /g showed a minimum in December 2008 at -10.6% y /y, to date, had risen to -5.3% y /y. In the euro area as the worst value of retail sales in February was at -4.6% y /y, and to date has risen to -1.6% y /y. And about unemployment and say nothing. The minimum level of unemployment in the U.S. in recent years occurred in March 2007 at 4.4%. By the current situation index rose to 9.7%. The minimum level of unemployment in the euro area was observed in March 2008 at 7.2% and the current situation has grown only to 9.5%. These calculations clearly show, whose economy is stronger. Recall that the Eurozone has a positive trade balance, the relatively small size of the budget deficit in comparison with what is in the United States. In this light, amusing to recall the restructuring discussions late last year, when the euro-dollar was trading at around 1.24 marks that the Eurozone will soon disintegrate and the euro will fall below parity to the dollar. We've always argued that this crisis Eurozone will come faster than the U.S.. The ongoing rise in the euro simply confirms the findings from the most superficial of fundamental analysis.

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