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World's central banks abandon the dollar in favor of the euro and yen

Oct 13th, 2009 | By admin | Category: Main News

As the global economy out of crisis, central banks abandon dollar, preferring to increase their assets in euros and yen.

According to Barclays Capital, the dollar's share in the total amount purchased in the second quarter of currency amounted to a record low 37%. This indicator and a half times lower than a decade ago. Analysts believe that in the short term, this trend will continue, writes RBC daily.

share of U.S. currency in the new reserves in 1999 was 63%. According to experts, in the present circumstances, this level for a long time will remain elusive. Information for the third quarter is not yet published, but Barclays Capital believes that the demand for dollars by financial regulators will continue to fall, while demand for the currency as a whole - growth. The latter assumption is confirmed by the data agency Bloomberg: in the last quarter of the world's central banks have increased their reserves in dollar terms to 7.3 trillion dollars (an increase of 413 billion dollars).

most active of the U.S. currency fall, developing economy. Earlier it was reported that since the beginning of spring this year, the central banks of these countries were selling an average of $ 30 billion a month. According to the International Monetary Fund, the dollar's share in global reserves fell to 62.8% at the end of June.

dollar loses its position predictably, said IHS Globalinsight economist Howard Archer. At the time of release of the world economy from the crisis, investors are less exposed to risks when playing on the weakening dollar. In addition, there are serious concerns regarding the high public deficit (1.4 billion dollars for fiscal year 2009) and the U.S. balance of payments, - the expert said. - Strengthening the euro is fully justified. It seems that the eurozone economy has resumed growth in the third quarter and will continue to enhance it in the fourth quarter. We can assume that the euro will maintain growth in the short term.

Government of the major developed countries, and China expressed serious concern over the weakness of the dollar. Independent experts also believe that this process would be disastrous for the whole world. The chief economist of the HSBC Stephen King in his article published in the newspaper The Independent, said that the fall of the dollar could trigger another financial crisis. The dollar loses its position as the world's reserve currency, and the problems continue to worsen, until you find a new symbol of stability, said King.

However, many analysts believe that the exodus from dollar-denominated assets - a temporary phenomenon. Investors are fleeing the dollar, seeking to reduce their risks, but remain confident that the U.S. remains the leading economies in the world. Growth prospects for the U.S. economy better than the eurozone. Thus, the U.S. currency, sooner or later, to some extent, will play the current decline, - says Archer.

signaled the resumption of growth of dollar assets could increase the U.S. Federal Reserve primary discount rate, which is now at a record low level - in the range from 0 to 0.25%. However, the question of when it happens - in the last quarter of this year or in 2010, remains open. We believe that the Fed may wait for a rate increase until the second half of 2010 to the end of the year to bring it to the 1% level, - said, RBC daily chief economist at TD Bank Financial Group Richard Kiely.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) published index of leading indicators for August this year. The general index of countries - members of the OECD rose by 1,5 points, which is 0.6 points higher than in August 2008. According to the study, signs of recovery in economic activity showed almost all the leading economies in the world. The best results showed Germany and Italy, where the growth index was 2,4 and 2 points respectively. In the U.S. this figure increased by 1.6 points in the euro area - at 1,7, and Japan - to 1,3, in the UK - at 1.6, France - on 1,3 points. The results pleased analysts developing economies to a lesser extent: the index of leading indicators in China increased by 1,5 points, Russia - on 1,1, India - on 0,9, and Brazil - on 0,4 points.


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