Ulyukayev: Inflation in Russia in 2010 will not rise above 7%
Feb 13th, 2010 | By admin | Category: Main NewsBank of Russia will continue the liberal exchange rate policy, gradually moving to a regime of free floating ruble exchange rate, promises, first deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev Bank.
"The fact that we can implement this element of inflation targeting - a floating ruble exchange rate, I"m sure a lot more than that, we can realize a number of other essential elements. We are already doing it gradually, gradually accustom society to freely float rate.
But still not yet entirely free, we have planned intervention, it will be modified free rate fixing. I think it is a normal model, we basically proved its viability society, decision-makers. I believe that in any pending circumstances we will succeed "- quoted Ulyukaeva RIA Novosti.
Inflation in Russia in 2010 may be substantially less than 7%, but in the second half it could be sped up, said Ulyukaev.
"From the second half of the inflation risks begin to increase, because global inflation may start to grow, and the money supply this semester will be a little different. But anyway, I do not see a situation where inflation in 2010 will be above 7%. I admit that it will be substantially less, but the risk of the second half, it will be considered by us ", - said the deputy chairman of the Central Bank.
risks of inflation in the second half Ulyukayev linked with possible influx of capital. He recalled that the inflation in the first quarter of 2009 amounted to 5,4%, and given the fact that, following last year"s overall figure was 8.8% in the last 9 months of the year inflation was equal to approximately 3,4% which mean rate of 0,3-0,4% per month.
"That"s the inflation that will accompany us, at least the first half," - said Ulyukaev. In January 2010 inflation will be higher - 1,4-1,5% (last year - 2,4%), then it may be a sharp decline. Typically, the inflation rate in January due to the higher tariffs.
first deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia believes that GDP growth in 2010 will be higher than the official government forecast: "We support the Government"s forecast growth - runway by 3,1%. While I think that is unlikely to be less than 4%, 5% more - proceeding from effect of base, enhance credit, capital inflows and rising prices for products in our exports. "
He believes that the GDP growth is quite compatible with the slowdown of inflation in 2010. During the first half of the inflationary risks would be small because of the preceding very moderate growth of money supply, the changing cost structure of the population (savings instead of consumption), reduction of consumer activity and a favorable global inflationary situation.
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