International Monetary Fund (IMF) has worsened the forecast of recession of economy of Ukraine up to 12%, and demanded from Kiev to declassify data on GDP, revised budget, conduct audit Naftogaz and resist the sharp decline in interest rates. In case of failure to comply with these requirements of the arrival of the IMF mission in Ukraine is delayed, and the third tranche of the loan will be received until September, which will complicate the calculation of banks' external borrowing.

Yesterday, a letter from the Deputy Executive Director of the IMF group Yuri Yakushev from 11 June to the leadership of Ukraine has become known list of problems whose solutions require the IMF mission in the nearest Time in Kiev. Arrival of its experts, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko expects June 24. According to the letter, the head of the European Department of IMF Marek Belka worry delayed disclosure of GDP, Ukraine plans to revise the budget in case of falling incomes, the failure of the obligation to abolish the 13 per cent customs allowances on imports of automobiles and refrigerators, the need to raise gas prices for the population and the recapitalization of banks .

failure of GDP and may interfere with the mission, because these data are critically important for the IMF, which in 2009 expects at least 12 per cent decline in GDP with lower-than-expected inflation. The fall in GDP was earlier estimated at 8%, inflation - 16%. IMF confident that the increasing drop in GDP would increase the budget deficit and will require a reduction in spending or raising revenues: But if the economic decline in Ukraine - one of the deepest in the world, it adds the arguments against the very tough macroeconomic policies.

particular concern to the IMF caused the situation in the NAK Naftogaz of Ukraine - lack of access to external credit for pumping gas while keeping the domestic price of gas. Therefore, the IMF may request a special audit Naftogaz to the end of which the IMF will remain cautious in the financing of the budget, even with the revision of the program and the transfer of funds to the NBU.

With regard to monetary policy bank, fund experts fear the Verkhovna Rada of political pressure to reduce interest rates and refinancing of new state state bank (UGB, Kiev, Rodovid Bank) for the actual decision-making subsidized loans. In fact, the letter - the conditions under which the mission is ready to come: we have to offer NAC, balance the budget and in compliance with previous requirements, - said a source familiar with the negotiations with the IMF.

IMF is not the first time criticized Ukraine. Prior to UNIAN announced Yakushev letter dated June 3, in which he announced the delay of arrival of the IMF mission in Kiev for one to two weeks due to slow changes in the law, non-government to reduce the deficit, both direct and indirect, Naftogaz . A delay mission to Kiev for 7-9 days (16 and 22-24 June) has the technical possibility of obtaining funds in July, but delayed the mission for 10-15 days increases the chances that the funds will be received until August. From 8 to 23 August, the Board of Directors of the IMF will be on holidays, so the delay of the mission more than 15 days may result in the IMF tranche will be available no earlier than September.

experts supported the IMF. The need for such measures and the IMF said earlier, after the issuance of the second tranche, it is not surprising that the fund has become more demanding, - said analyst IC Troika Dialog Ukraine Irina Piontkovsky. The likely postponement of the issuance of the third tranche could have negative consequences for Kiev. In February, credit swaps, Ukraine jumped up to 5000 points - a risk premium to work in Ukraine exceeded 50%. This situation could happen again now, - said the executive director of the International Fund for Bleyzer Oleg Ustenko .- But in September-October, the banks to repay loans. Under what conditions they will hold them to refinance? Failure of IMF tranche may also defer the issuance of the World Bank $ 750 million in the recapitalization of banks, said Piontkovsky.

emergence of a negative report on the economy could lead to a tightening of the requirements of the IMF. It is difficult to say whether the possible scenario of Latvia (sequestration spending budget by 10%), but it is very likely that there will be a dramatic reduction of costs - the expert believes the company Gainsfort Research Yevgenia Okhtirka. However, the budget director, Institute for Social and Economic Research Irina Scherbina confident that the reduction of social benefits is only possible with GDP falling by 15%.