Restoring the world economy has accelerated
Feb 28th, 2010 | By admin | Category: Main Newsmacroeconomists IMF presented the most optimistic outlook for global economic growth in 2010 among the predictions offered by experts of international organizations in this month. The IMF expects that in 2010 the world economy will grow by 3,9%, and in 2011 - by 4,3%. In the last week of the World Bank predicted that in 2010 the total world gross product would increase by 2.7% and in 2011 - by 3,2%, and economists from the UN expects that in 2010 the world economy will increase only by 2,4%.
leading role in rebuilding the world economy will play developing countries, while developed countries will struggle with high unemployment and increasing state debt. The developed economies of the world will grow in 2010 by 2,1%, while in 2011 their growth was 2,4%. At the same time, the IMF forecast on the growth of developing economies has been improved by almost 1%. In 2010, they will grow by 6%, and in 2011 - by 6,3%.
"Strengthening the foundations of the economy and rapid response helped many emerging market alleviate the consequences of unprecedented external shocks in a short time once again to attract capital flows. It is expected that growth rates will vary widely between countries and regions in both groups of countries because of differences in initial conditions, external shocks and action. For example, the major Asian countries with emerging economies have played a leading role in the global upswing. Several European countries with developed economies and several countries in Central and Eastern Europe and CIS countries are lagging behind in terms of growth, "- says the IMF report.
At the same time, increasing concern among economists of IMF causes a sharp influx of capital into emerging markets, which can cause new blisters. However, current levels of capital inflows into China are not yet able to provoke the emergence of a bubble. "Of course, in some sectors of the Chinese economy overheated asset can be called, but talking about fully inflated" bubble "There should not be", - says head of global economic research department at the IMF Joerg Dekressin.
main reason for improving forecasts is an extraordinary amount of government measures to stimulate the economy. In the Fund believes that these measures should be continued. IMF report, focusing on global financial stability, provide a conclusion on the fact that commercial banks around the world will have to seek significant additional funds to support the recovery in credit markets and the economy as a whole.
This fund notes that there are risks, which resulted in its predictions may be too optimistic. "The main risk is that the hasty and inconsistent end up supporting the economy could undermine the growth of the global economy and restore its balance," - say the authors of the report of the IMF.
Another serious risk is that the troubled financial system and housing markets and increasing unemployment in the leading countries with advanced economies, delay recovery of consumer spending to a greater extent than projected. In addition, there are increasing concerns about the budget, the instability that could disrupt financial markets and stifle growth by raising borrowing costs for people and companies.
Another risk of deterioration is that the rapidly rising commodity prices could hinder growth in countries with developed economies. In these circumstances, the policy-makers gets most difficult task to ensure the reorientation of demand from the private and public sector with countries with excessive external deficits in countries with excessive surpluses, while restoring the financial sector and promoting the restructuring in the real sector. IMF notes that both these processes to restore the balance are not without complications.
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