Given the downward trend in inflation this year, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is useful to consider the possibility of lowering the discount rate, says the head of the group heads of the National Bank advisers Valery Litvitsky.

I would recommend to reduce the discount rate at 0.25% - up to 10.75%. The rates on loans overnight on security should also be reduced by 0.25% - up to 15.75%, and blank credit - for 0.5% to 17.5%. But, perhaps, some members of the Board of the National Bank would not support such a proposal, - he said the agency Interfax-Ukraine on Friday.

As reported, the NBU with the June 15 cut the discount rate to 11% from 12% per annum. At the previous level, it has held since the end of April 2008.

Adviser to the Head of NBU said that after the proposed reduction of the two working bank rate will remain positive as compared with the current inflation, which over the past 12 months was 15.5% (July to July).

In the balance of macroeconomic risks fixed shift to the dominant threat of recession. The decline in the economy weakened more slowly than inflation slowed down, - argue Litvitsky its proposal.

In his view, the likelihood of a sharp ascending trend of inflation in August was lower against the backdrop of supercooled state of the economy and the low trajectory of movement of producer prices: the seasonal deflation factor remains a significant potential impact on prices.

If there seasonal acceleration of inflation in September, according to our obligations under the Memorandum (in cooperation with the International Monetary Fund), the National Bank may make the necessary adjustments in policy interest, - he added.

Team Leader Adviser to the Head of the National Bank also said that in deciding on the size of the discount rate should reflect changes in the inflation differential with Russia, which is one of the two major trading partners of Ukraine.

If in January-June (in relation to December) inflation in Russia was 1.2% lower than in Ukraine, during the January-July, only to 0,4% - 8,5% and 8,1 %, respectively. And interest rates are similar - 11%. At the same time, the devaluation of hryvnia, starting in July, was slower than the process of the ruble, - he explained.

Litvitsky believes that after hypothetically likely lower interest rates competitive position of Ukraine on the real effective exchange rate is not unacceptable losses.

Adviser to the Head of NBU also opined that if the weighted anti-inflationary actions of the Government of inflation in 2009 may be lower than last year (22.3%), at least a third.

He believes that the authorities need to counter the aggressive change in utility rates in the regions (except gas) and the cost of transport services, as well as to desist from changing the excise tax.

In addition, Litvitsky finds it necessary to abolish the 13%-ing allowance for the duties on imports and to trade intervention in the market of sugar

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