Bankers fear defaults
Mar 22nd, 2010 | By admin | Category: Main Newsaccumulation of toxic assets and the growth of foreign currency liabilities could trigger a second wave of the crisis for the banking system, say bankers. Nevertheless, the NBU and the Ministry of Finance on the economic situation in the country and in the financial sector in 2010 looks more optimistic, and even see no reason for the devaluation of the hryvnia against the dollar.
economy has already begun to emerge from the crisis: GDP grows three quarters in a row, the exchange rate stable, economic activity is restored. "In addition to indicators, which calculates the Goskomstat - GDP compared to the same period last year, we still have our own indicator - GDP relative to the previous quarter adjusted for seasonality. Well, he also has been increasing for three quarters," - said Igor Shumilo, Director Economic Affairs NBU.
At the same time, he said, monetary policy in the second half was quite rigorous and aimed at curbing inflation and stabilizing the exchange rate, although the policy of a fixed course was abandoned. "We have moved away from fixed exchange rate policy, but trying to be the fluctuations were insignificant. Exchange rate - this is the tool that the economy must adjust itself, and be prepared both to stimulate exports and to neprepyatstvovaniyu to import, which is needed for the country" - said Shumylo.
The NBU sure that the main factor necessary for the resumption of lending to the economy, is forecasting the development of the country for at least two to three years. "From power to require predictability for at least three years, when resources are withdrawn from the public banking system that is out of the economy, it will be possible to try to return, and only then talk about the draft medium-term lending to the real sector", - considers Shumylo.
In turn, the Chairman of the Board of Finance and Credit "Vladimir Hlyvniuk believes that predictability - that"s good, but the banks are now under threat of a second wave of crisis due to this time no problems with liquidity, but" the problem in a square " - large amounts of overdue loans. "Our legislation, as the Soviet designed to protect the rights of creditors, so that all banks have big problems with the return of loans, and in all segments, both from a legal as well as with individuals," - he states.
addition, as noted by the head of the main service of socio-economic development of the Presidential Secretariat Roman Zhukovsky, due to increasing dollarization of the economy in the banking system, there were preconditions for possible shocks. "The share of deposits in foreign currency increased from 50% to 65% of banks" liabilities, moreover, that the loans in foreign currency is prohibited. I"m not saying that this will necessarily lead us to the second wave of the crisis or even to something, but it is something that must consider the National Bank. If you do not, then I think the question of stabilization of the exchange rate would become the very distant future, "- he said.
In turn, the adviser to the Minister of Economics Sergiy Yaremenko sure that the banks are to blame for the situation, calling the crisis the same profits as in good times than paralyze the economy. According to him, all over the world for the past 40 years, financial sector profits had quadrupled, and constitute half the total income of the economy, and even in a crisis the bankers do not want to refuse this. "When in 2008 the economy sank 30%, our banking sector has also had prosest 30% - says Yaremenko .- But due to the fact that the state where some banks helped the poor and helped the good, now they are all become unstable jelly, actually not able to fulfill its credit function.
Nevertheless, he is indignant, banks require the restoration of their profits to the pre-crisis level. "Interest rates on credits in grivna 20-30%."s Clear to everyone that this - that the threshold at which the borrower can not take credit. Therefore, the loan remains untapped, as the interest rate makes it impossible to function normally and produce a product, - the expert believes.
In his view, the only way out of this impasse is the issue. "We acknowledge that we have all the bad and even worse than the others, while continuing to keep their teeth for Monetary Targeting, when the world does the opposite - Advisor to the Minister approves .- This is schizophrenia at the state level on behalf of National Bank - announce float and then take him to fix. Therefore, the orientation of the NBU on the liberal model of rate fixing, in his opinion, is erroneous. "What our machine is worse than Obama?" A year later, you"ll see that all the countries of the world are printing their own currency to maintain economic growth, so the hryvnia is needed for economic recovery "- insists Yaremenko, as sure as soon as any foreign capital in Ukraine will not come.
However, in his view, the problem of the NBU - to make sure that funds were allocated emission in the economy, rather than the currency market. As for inflation, obviously, can not avoid it, but in this case it is a lesser evil than a structural crisis.
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