In the next two years the world economy begins to slowly go out of the crisis. This is stated in a July study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Bulletin of the major predictions Prospects for the world economy (PRME).

After causing frustration I quarter of 2009, in which the global economic downturn was nearly the same rate as in the IV quarter of 2008, experts expect the fund to the fact that in countries with developed economies as a whole will begin a sustained recovery of activity in the second half of 2010. IMF stresses that improving the financial conditions, contrary to all expectations, was primarily due to government intervention.

At the present time, it is projected that economic growth in 2009-2010 will exceed by about half a percentage point growth rate, projected earlier, and in 2010 reached 2.5%. In the report the IMF says that the projected slowdown of world activity in 2009 will be at the level of 1.4%.

However, the economic situation in the different markets and different countries is not improved to the same extent. In particular, it is expected that bank lending conditions remain tight for some considerable time, and external funding will be limited. At the same time, prices for stock items jumped even before the onset of recovery. The market price of oil sharply reacted to the idea that the dynamics of the market is moving from a large excess supply to more balanced conditions. This is partly due to improved prospects for demand, as well as strict compliance with OPEC production quotas reduced. Forward Markets predicted oil prices at U.S. $ 74.50 per barrel. for 2010, slightly above the current level, it is expected that significant unused production capacity to meet growing demand. In these circumstances, economic activity and credit growth are likely to remain limited in many economies, - says the document.

Regarding the period after 2010 is not yet clear how the structural decline in private consumption in the United States and other developed countries and countries with emerging economies affected by the collapse in asset prices will be offset by increased demand in other regions. Currently, the macroeconomic policies of expansion and adjustment of stocks of working capital support for the global activity.

In countries with emerging market growth once again pick up the pace in the second half of 2009, but with notable regional differences. Thus, the IMF forecast economic growth for Central and Eastern Europe and CIS countries adjusted downward to 1.3 and 0.7 percentage points in 2009 and upwards, respectively, 0.2 and 0, 8 percentage points in 2010.

However, inflationary pressures in annualized in 2009 dropped from 6% in 2008 to 1.7% in May 2009. Nevertheless, core inflation is still at 1.5 percent, down from last year's level of 2%. In countries with emerging markets core inflation and inflationary pressures were moderate, falling in May, respectively, to below 4.5% to about 1%. In addition, unemployment and loss of confidence in the stability of the financial sector could significantly improve the level of risk in emerging economies.

However, in its report, the IMF offers to countries, as measures for the sustainable economic development-oriented fiscal policies to restore the viability of the financial sector, in monetary and fiscal policy until deflation risks will not disappear, and did not resume growth, as well as the reorientation of world demand, which is an increase in orders from the private sector.
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