IC FINAM assigned shares of JSC Akron recommendation to sell, estimating its cost at $ 18.3 at the end of 2010, which corresponds to the potential reduction in the level of 22%. Analysts note that the demand for products Akron fundamentally strong and will grow rapidly. However, the risks associated with relatively high debt burden and rapid increases in domestic prices for natural gas, significantly reduce the investment attractiveness of the company.

Holding Akron - one of Russia's largest producers of ammonia, nitrogen and complex fertilizers. In addition to the leading group of companies - JSC Akron, the group consists of JSC Dorogobuzh and Joint Stock Company Hunzhi-Akron. In 2008, total production of ammonia and fertilizer group (excluding internal consumption) amounted to 3.6 million tons of organic synthesis and inorganic chemistry - 1,2 million tons. Production of Akron sold more than 50 countries worldwide, with most of the - in the markets of Russia, China, South America and Asia.

According to estimates of analysts' FINAM, global prices for nitrogen fertilizers at this time reached the bottom that will drive the growth of quotations of shares of JSC Akron. The price of natural gas, which is the main raw material for production of nitrogenous fertilizers, is pegged to the price of oil - said analyst IK FINAM Dmitry Terekhov. - Therefore we assume that the dynamics of prices for nitrogen fertilizers will generally follow the price of oil. Given the growth prices in the oil market, since March 2009, we expect price growth in the segment of nitrogen fertilizer.

world prices for phosphate and potash fertilizers fell significantly less than the price of nitrogen fertilizers, which forced farmers to switch to the consumption of cheaper and more appropriate nitrogen fertilizer plants, note the analysts of investment companies. This shift in the demand for nitrogen fertilizers has allowed Russian factories acronym to work with 100% load in the second quarter of 2009 - says Mr. Terehov.

dependence on monopoly suppliers of phosphate and potash raw materials, can have a negative impact on financial performance Akron. According to analyst IC FINAM Denis Arkhipov, the existence of a large discount between export and domestic price of apatite concentrate, and potassium chloride is a constant irritating factor for the producers of these resources ( Apatite, Uralkaliy, Silvinit) interested in the reduction of the discount : So far, Akron , with the support of the state managed to curb a sharp rise in commodity prices, but in the long term competitiveness of the company on its core market of complex fertilizers will depend entirely on the ability to provide themselves with their own raw materials. If, for phosphoric raw material the possibility is, for potash it is low. In addition, since 2012, domestic gas prices should start to increase the rate of 30% or more per year by 2015 to achieve the export price net back, and if this plan is realized, the operating margin, Akron might fall to 4% in 2014 year.

The level of debt burden Acron is noncritical in a normal functioning of financial markets - predicted FINAM, the ratio of ND /EBITDA will be 3 at the end of 2009, however, a sharp deterioration of the situation with funding and /or a sharp fall in prices for products, financial stability of company would be in jeopardy, I'm sure Mr. Arkhipov: The second negative consequence of the large amount of debt is the increase in interest expenses. According to our forecast, the average amount of interest expense in the 2009-2014 year will be 40% of operating profit that adversely affect the net profitability of Akron and, ultimately, to the extent paid dividends.

Department of Public Relations and Media Investment Holdings FINAM.
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